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Start With Overview of Tools Used to Assess Global Warming
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WHAT HAPPENS IF YOU WARM UP THE BASIN?
Integrated watershed scale response to global change in selected basins across the United States
Lauren Hay and Steven Markstrom (NRP/CR) David Bjerklie (WSC/CT), Katherine Chase (WSC/MT), Robert Dudley (WSC/ME), John Fulton (WSC/PA), Randy Hunt (WSC/WI), Anne Jeton (WSC/NV), Kathryn Koczot (WSC/CA, Mark Mastin (WSC/WA), Richard Niswonger (WSC/NV), John Risley (WSC/OR), Kevin Vining (WSC/ND), and John Walker (WSC/WI)
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Lets Look at What is Already Occurring In the Basin
THIS EARLIER RUNOFF CAN BE SEEN BY COMPARING AVERAGE HYDROGRAPHS FOR THE 1947-1976 PERIOD TO THE POST-1976 PERIOD THE 1976-1977 CHANGE REPRESENTS A REGIONAL SHIFT IN HYDROCLIMATE REGIMES: POST-1976 HYDROGRAPHS DISPLAY A SUBDUED VERSION OF THE PROJECTED GLOBAL CHANGES
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GLACIER THICKNESS CHANGE, 1970-2004
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SNOWMELT IS A MAJOR COMPONENT OF SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED GROUNDWATER RECHARGE -- 30-70% OF MELT Provides Cold Water for Later Discharge to Streams and Prevents Winter Icing
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SOME FACTORS AFFECTING WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE BASIN
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RECLAMATION OPERATES THE RESERVOIRS TO MEET MOST OF THE ENTITLEMENTS What are the Entitlements and What about Operations – Back to EARLIER RUNOFF AND Then onto PRORATING
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PRORATING
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GROUNDWATER RIGHTS
WHAT HAPPENS IN PRORATING YEARS?
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MANY BELIEVE GROUND WATER WILL SUPPLEMENT SURFACE-WATER SUPPLIES IN A WARMING WORLD BECAUSE GROUNDWATER IS ‘BUFFERED’ AGAINST A WARMING CLIMATE
SIMPLE EXAMPLES OF WARMING AFFECTS ON CROPS IN THE YAKIMA RIVER BASIN
GENERAL ASPECTS
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Results vary by soil type (119 categories for lower basin)
IMPORTANCE OF SW & GW RETURN FLOWS
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DECREASING SNOWPACK EARLIER (& LESS) RUNOFF ELEVATION OF SNOW TRANSITION ZONE INCREASED ET INCREASED PUMPAGE DECREASED RECHARGE WARMER RECHARGE DECREASED GROUNDWATER DISCHARGE LOWER BASEFLOWS DECLINING GROUNDWATER LEVELS
VULNERABILITIES
Water Supply
Fish
Other
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