Five populations (baseline)- Five populations (baseline)
- Upper Yakima River – Spring
- Naches River – Spring
- American River – Spring
- Lower Yakima river – Fall
- Marion Drain – Fall
- DNA samples from outmigrating smolts collected at Chandler Trap
- Data from eight brood years (2000-2008)
- Standardized (GAPS) markers and proportional sampling since 2004 (5 years)
Separately for each year and season (Jan-Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun-Jul) assign smolts to populations- Separately for each year and season (Jan-Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun-Jul) assign smolts to populations
- 20 independent assignments (5 years x 5 seasons)
- Conditional likelihood / partial Bayesian Procedure (e.g., GMA, ONCOR)
- “Power” analysis of baseline
- e.g., Jackknife assignments
Power analysis of baseline- Power analysis of baseline
- Model-based
- Calculates probability of correct assignment
- Population assignment of smolts
- Hierarchical conditional-likelihood
- Considers all samples from all years and seasons simultaneously
- Bi-weekly population assignment
- Outmigration trends
How good is the baseline for assigning smolts to populations?- How good is the baseline for assigning smolts to populations?
- Many methods
- Jackknife (“leave-one-out”)
- 100% simulations
- Cross-validation method (Anderson et al., 2008)
- Prob (assignment | population)
- Model used here:
- Building on Anderson et al.
- Prob (population | assignment)
- Probability of the correct assignment
No details of methods- No details of methods
- Hierarchical approach
- Informed priors at each level in the hierarchy
- Sufficient power to assign bi-weekly, rather than monthly
- Population trends of outmigrating smolts
- Within a year
- Differences among years
- For each population:
- Year-to-year variability of migration timing
- Within a year compare timing among populations
Timing of outmigration variable among years, but some patterns:- Timing of outmigration variable among years, but some patterns:
- Outmigration not necessarily synchronous
- upYakima earlier than Naches and American
- Some years with two “waves” of spring outmigration: late Jan-early Feb and then late April/early May
- March either no sampling or few fish
Funding: BPA and Washington State General Fund- Funding: BPA and Washington State General Fund
- Yakima Nation: Mark Johnston and crew (sampling), Dave Lind, Bill Bosch, Doug Neeley, Dave Fast (data and coordination)
- WDFW Laboratory: Jennifer von Bargen, Norm Switzler
- WDFW YKFP Coordination: Todd Pearsons (now Grant Co. PUD), Andrew Murdock, Molly Kelly, John Easterbrooks, Anthony Fritts, Scott Blankenship